Investing Despite Uncertainty
Why Access to Finance Has Become a Key Driver of Resilience and Competitiveness for Ukrainian Businesses
REMARKET Insights | A joint expert article by Caritas Switzerland and Raiffeisen Bank
Through its REMARKET programme, Caritas Switzerland works with financial institutions and other market actors to help Ukrainian businesses overcome specific barriers to investment, productivity and access to finance.
The full-scale war has fundamentally changed the role of investment for Ukrainian businesses. Today, companies invest not only to grow, but also to adapt. For some, investment is about strengthening energy resilience; for others, it means automating production, addressing labour shortages, or meeting the requirements of new customers.
The broader context of Ukraine’s economy also includes businesses restarting operations after losses and relocating from frontline areas. These needs vary and cannot be addressed through a single financial instrument. Some businesses require a modest investment boost, others need a loan for modernisation, while some benefit from combining bank financing with additional support that helps ease the financial burden on the business.
Despite their different starting points, businesses face the same fundamental question: can they afford to invest today?
Business Remains a Pillar of Economic Resilience
Small and medium-sized enterprises form the backbone of Ukraine's economy. They create jobs, work with local suppliers, sustain manufacturing, export to international markets, and support economic activity in communities across the country.
According to the State Tax Service of Ukraine, the manufacturing sector accounted for 18.1% of total tax revenues collected between January and April 2026, while tax payments from manufacturing enterprises increased by 19.3% compared to the same period a year earlier. Behind these figures are thousands of business decisions to keep production running, retain employees and continue investing despite an exceptionally uncertain environment.
Investment in equipment, energy efficiency, automation, quality improvement and compliance with standards therefore has an impact far beyond any individual company. According to the World Bank's latest Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA), private finance could potentially cover around 40% of the investment required for Ukraine's recovery. Without bank lending, private capital and businesses' own investment, the scale of transformation required will simply not be achievable.
This is why partnerships between financial institutions, development programmes and businesses themselves are becoming increasingly important. Each partner addresses a different element of investment risk, helping viable investments move forward even under wartime conditions.
Lending Is Recovering, but Access to Investment Finance Remains Challenging
Ukraine’s banking system has demonstrated considerable resilience. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, the net hryvnia-denominated business loan portfolio grew by approximately 36% in 2025, while the ratio of net business loans to GDP reached 8.7%. This indicates a gradual recovery in business lending. At the same time, the role of bank financing in the economy remains below its pre-full-scale invasion level.
For businesses, access to finance is not simply about obtaining loan approval. The real question is whether they can afford the cost of borrowing, meet the bank's requirements, maintain sufficient liquidity and service the debt until the investment begins to generate returns.
Under wartime conditions, this has become significantly more difficult. Planning horizons have shortened, project costs may increase during implementation, and delivery schedules, equipment installation and production ramp-up have become far less predictable.
As a result, a gap still exists between the availability of financing and the actual implementation of investment projects. Businesses must be prepared to take on long-term financial commitments, banks must be confident that borrowers will be able to repay them, and the investment itself must remain economically viable even under less favourable scenarios.
Why an Available Loan Does Not Always Mean an Affordable Investment
According to Raiffeisen Bank, the planning horizon for many Ukrainian companies has shortened dramatically since the start of the full-scale war. Investments that would normally be planned over three to five years now have to be assessed against a business outlook that often extends no further than the next three to six months.
Even companies with established business models, stable customer bases and a clear need for modernisation must now consider a much broader range of risks, including power disruptions, labour shortages, changing demand, rising operating costs, potential damage to assets and longer payback periods.
Receiving a loan is only the first step. The business must then purchase the equipment, arrange delivery, installation and commissioning. In many cases, staff also need to be trained before the investment begins generating additional income. For imported equipment, this process may take several months. Once the equipment enters Ukraine, it is exposed to a significantly higher level of war-related risk, which can affect delivery timelines, commissioning and the overall implementation of the investment project.
During this period, the business is already servicing the loan, while the new asset has not yet begun generating additional value or income. This gap between the initial financial commitment and the point at which the investment starts delivering returns is one of the key reasons why businesses postpone even economically sound investment decisions.
The Bank Sees the Same Uncertainty — from a Different Perspective
During wartime, investment lending is challenging not only for businesses, but also for banks. Banks must balance supporting economic activity with protecting depositors' funds and maintaining the quality of their loan portfolios.
When assessing an investment project, Raiffeisen Bank Ukraine looks beyond financial statements. It evaluates the company's cash flows, market position, sectoral and regional risks, collateral, financing structure and, importantly, whether the investment will strengthen the business over the long term. Job creation and retention, energy efficiency, and alignment with sustainable development principles also form part of the assessment.
"During the war, it is especially important for businesses to realistically assess the future of an investment: how long implementation will take, when the equipment will start generating revenue, how costs may change, and whether the company can withstand a more challenging scenario. The bank’s role is to help identify a financing structure that aligns with the company’s capabilities and supports its growth," Raiffeisen Bank notes.
Rigorous credit assessment is therefore not a barrier to access to finance. On the contrary, it is an essential condition for responsible lending. The objective is to support investments that strengthen businesses rather than create financial obligations they may struggle to sustain.
Why Partnership Mechanisms Matter
Banks and businesses face the same practical challenge: how to move forward with commercially viable investments when risks have increased and payback periods have become less predictable.
Partnership mechanisms address different parts of this challenge. Credit guarantees reduce risk for lenders, interest-rate compensation lowers borrowing costs, technical assistance improves investment readiness, and post-investment cash-back helps ease financial pressure on businesses after an investment has been made.
This approach is increasingly reflected in international financing programmes for Ukraine. In 2026, the EBRD and the European Union expanded a programme combining bank lending with guarantees, technical assistance and investment incentives for Ukrainian MSMEs. This reflects a broader shift towards using targeted public and donor support to mobilise commercial finance and help viable investments proceed despite the additional constraints created by the war.
Access to Finance: A Partnership Approach to Reducing Investment Barriers
One example of such a partnership is the Access to Finance component of the REMARKET programme. REMARKET is implemented by Caritas Switzerland together with Caritas Ukraine, Caritas-Spes Ukraine and SPARK, with funding from the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and If Foundation, Liechtenstein Office for Foreign Affairs and with support from Caritas Austria, Cordaid and Trócaire. The Access to Finance component is delivered in partnership with Raiffeisen Bank.
The model combines commercial bank lending with a targeted investment incentive provided by REMARKET. Businesses identify their investment needs, apply to the bank and undergo a full credit assessment. If approved, they receive an investment loan to finance productive assets. Once the assets have been purchased, delivered and put into operation, and the investment has been verified in line with the programme requirements, participating businesses may receive a cash-back grant of up to 10% of the loan amount, capped at CHF 10,000.
Within this partnership, Raiffeisen Bank develops the lending product for programme participants, assesses both the borrower and the investment project, and makes all lending decisions independently. REMARKET neither provides loans nor guarantees loan approval. Businesses remain fully responsible for implementing the investment and repaying the loan.
For many MSMEs, access to finance is about more than obtaining a loan. The cash-back mechanism is designed to address a specific stage of the investment cycle. It does not replace bank financing; instead, it provides additional support once the investment has been completed and verified. By reducing the effective cost of the investment, improving post-investment liquidity and shortening the payback period, it helps businesses bridge the period before the new asset begins generating returns.
Importantly, the mechanism does not make weak projects bankable or reduce the bank's credit risk. It supports investments that are already commercially sound and have successfully passed an independent credit assessment.
Different Investment Needs Require Different Financial Solutions
There is no single financing instrument that fits every business. Removing a production bottleneck, testing a new business solution and undertaking a major modernisation project require different amounts of capital, different levels of business readiness and different approaches to risk.
REMARKET uses different financial instruments because businesses face different constraints and are at different stages of investment readiness. Some need support to address a specific operational bottleneck or take an initial investment step, while others are ready to pursue a larger investment through commercial finance. Access to Finance is designed for the latter group, helping viable businesses mobilise bank financing while reducing a specific financial barrier through a targeted cash-back incentive.
Investment Will Shape Ukraine's Economic Future
Ukraine's recovery will not be determined solely by the scale of international assistance or public investment. Equally important is whether private businesses continue investing in productivity, quality, energy efficiency, job creation and access to new markets.
Bank lending is recovering. Yet transforming available finance into pЫыroductive, long-term investment remains a complex process for both businesses and financial institutions.
This is why partnerships between the financial sector and development programmes matter. They do not replace market mechanisms; they strengthen them by helping a greater number of commercially viable investments move forward.
Ultimately, Ukraine's economic resilience will depend not only on businesses continuing to operate today, but also on their ability to invest in tomorrow.